Livestock Markets Rally
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May Feeder Cattle gap opened higher and broke down to the low at 279.375. The dip took price close to support at 279.20 where it turned higher and grinded the rest of the day to the high at 281.30. It settled near the high at 280.95. The rally took price past resistance at the declining 13-DMA now at 280.60. It also left the gap from Friday’s high at 279.15 to the Monday low. Unfortunately, it couldn’t get into the gap left from the April 4th high at 281.325 to the April 3rd low at 282.275. Just past the gap high is resistance at 282.35. This area proved for the day to be too tough to attempt to bridge, leaving work to be done for bullish traders and hope for bears that the market will turn lower. Futures are trading at a discount to the Feeder index and it showed a higher print when it was released after the close. This could strengthen bulls’ chances to close the gap and work price higher if the index can resume its climb. The Monday rally took out last week’s high and a continued positive trade in the Equity arena could strengthen sentiment for Feeders and we could get a test of gap resistance. We’ll see!... A rally past the Monday high could see a test of the gap resistance. There is resistance just above the gap at 282.35 and the flattening 21-DMA now at 282.55. This could limit the rally. A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at the 279.825 - 279.0 band. Support then comes in at 277.25.
The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 287.16 as of 04/11/2025.
June Live Cattle opened higher and made the low at 197.075. Price grinded higher the rest of the trading session, making the high at 199.25. It settled near the high at 199.075. The open tested the Friday high and the rally took price past resistance at the 50-DMA now at 198.825 and 199.10. It settled in between the two levels. The market started off strong and was able to navigate higher as the Equity markets stabilized and were trading mostly higher during the session. Trade and tariffs remain the talk of the town and there is some hope that we can see some relief as negotiations between the US and interested parties are ongoing. Cash was lower last week and early expectations are for steady trade this week. We have the Good Friday holiday on Friday and Easter on Sunday so slaughter will likely be much lower than last week’s low slaughter level (564,000) as the packer gives their employees some time off. With the lower slaughter levels last week, the packer would likely have expected that the cutout would jump as the retailer battled for product. It didn’t occur and the packer will try to knock cash lower as a result, especially with the holidays in front of us but they didn’t buy much cattle last week and probably will need to be a little more aggressive as a result. The cutout has moved between 330 and 340 lately but is expected to start grinding higher after the holidays are over as grocers prepare for the summer grilling season. Exports remain erratic and imports are questionable with the tariffs. Producers aren’t in a panic to sell their cattle and weights will likely stay elevated despite the season. What will the packer do? We’ll see!... If price trades l below the 50-DMA, price could pullback and test the Monday low. A breakdown below here could see support tested at 196.625. If price can overcome resistance at 199.10, price could test resistance at 200.90. The declining 21-DMA is nearby at 201.40.
Boxed beef cutouts were higher as choice cutouts increased 1.41 to 335.63 and select increased 1.89 to 315.85. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 19.78 and the load count was 81.
Monday’s estimated slaughter is 112,000, which is above last week’s 104,000 and below last year’s 119,791.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Monday, negotiated cash trading has been at a standstill in all regions. Last week in the Southern Plains, live FOB purchases traded at 204.00. Last week in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt, live FOB purchases traded at 208.00 and dressed delivered purchases from 327.00- 328.00.
The USDA is indicating no cash trades for live cattle and on a dressed basis (so far).
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Market Strategist
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
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